Creating a New Market

Written By neostake

Last updated 4 months ago

When creating a new market on Neostake, follow these rules carefully.
All markets must be specific, measurable, and objectively resolvable. Vague or subjective markets will be rejected.

Prediction Details

Headline

  • Write a clear, outcome-oriented title that anyone can understand immediately.

  • Avoid vague wording. Always define the exact event being predicted.

Good examples:

  • “Will the Mensa at Campus Garching list Vegan Gyros on Friday, Oct 18, 2025?”

  • “Will the TUM IN0011 Exam take place on Feb 12, 2026 as scheduled?”

  • “Will Professor X publish the updated lecture slides for MA2401 before Dec 1, 2025?”

Bad examples:

  • “Food plans soon?”

  • “Will the exam be hard?”

  • “Slides online?”

Market Type
Choose the correct category. Each type has its own required fields:

  • Campus → Select the exact campus, optional link to event/location.

  • Mensa → Campus Mensa, menu date, link to official dining plan.

  • Classes/Lectures → Course/module code, department, lecture date, source link.

  • Exams → Course/module name, exam date window, official schedule link.

  • Professors → Course/module reference, department, announcement or publication event.

Allowed vs. Not Allowed Markets

Allowed:

  • Mensa-related predictions (specific dishes, opening times, menus).

  • Class and lecture predictions (slides uploaded, lectures cancelled, deadlines announced).

  • Exam-related predictions (exam date, location, published schedule).

  • University announcements (holiday schedules, campus closures, official policy changes).

  • Professor-related actions (upload of slides, change of lecture date, publication of exercise sheet).

Not allowed:

  • Markets involving personal names of students or private individuals.

  • Vague or subjective markets (“Will the exam be hard?”, “Is the Mensa food tasty?”).

  • Markets with outcomes that are already known at creation.

  • Plain YES/NO outcomes without descriptive labels.

  • Harmful, unsafe, or discriminatory content.

Possible Outcomes

  • Outcomes must be mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive.

  • Use descriptive labels instead of plain YES/NO.

Good:

  • Outcome 1: “Menu lists Vegan Gyros on Oct 18”

  • Outcome 2: “Menu does not list Vegan Gyros”

Bad:

  • “Yes / No”

  • “Maybe / It depends”

For multi-outcome markets (e.g., “Which day will the exam take place?”), list all realistic options.

Timing

  • Market Close: The last moment users can trade.

  • Market Resolution: When the outcome is determined.

    • If left empty, resolution defaults to 4 days after close (Oracle voting).

Resolution Conditions

  • Rules must be written so a third party can resolve the market without interpretation.

Good:
“Resolve Outcome 1 if the official TUM Mensa menu lists ‘Vegan Gyros’ for 2025-10-18 before 10:00 CET; otherwise Outcome 2.”

Bad:
“If most people say there was vegan food.”

  • Always cover edge cases such as postponements, cancellations, renamed dishes, changes in lecture halls, or time zones.

Official Sources for Resolution

Provide at least one public, authoritative source. Examples:

  • University dining plan pages

  • Official exam schedules

  • Faculty or department websites

  • Verified announcements or policy pages

Risk Factors & Considerations

Mention possible issues and how to handle them:

  • Event cancellations or postponements

  • Last-minute schedule changes

  • Source website downtime

  • Dish renamed on the menu

  • Announcements in multiple languages

Cover Image

  • Must clearly represent the market.

  • Acceptable: Mensa building, lecture hall, exam schedule screenshot, faculty logo.

  • Not acceptable: random stock images, memes, abstract graphics.

  • Images should be sharp, relevant, and with minimal text overlay.

AI Validation (Mandatory)

Every market must pass AI Validation before submission. Without completing this step, the market cannot be created.

The AI checks for:

  • Specificity and measurability

  • Resolution clarity

  • Timeframe realism

  • Campus and class relevance

  • Compliance with allowed rules

If issues are flagged, they must be corrected before the market can be published.

Responsibility and Liability

  • By creating a market, you are fully responsible for correctness, clarity, and compliance with these rules.

  • Neostake is not liable for errors, ambiguities, or personal consequences of poorly written markets.

  • Markets violating rules (personal data, vague criteria, harmful content) will be removed and may result in account sanctions.

Quick Checklist Before Submitting

  • Headline is clear, outcome-oriented, and measurable

  • Outcomes are descriptive and exhaustive (not YES/NO)

  • Market Close and Resolution times are realistic

  • Resolution conditions are objective and cover edge cases

  • At least one official, public source is provided

  • Cover image is relevant and high-quality

  • AI Validation completed successfully

  • Market follows allowed topics (no names, no vague or harmful content)

  • You accept full responsibility for correctness