Clarification on the resolution of Markets

Hi everyone,

a question has come up regarding the resolution of the market “SPCX 2.75T by June 20?”, and we want to address it transparently, because at first glance two of our rules can look like they pull in different directions. They do not, and here is the full logic.

The background: The 2.75T USD threshold was only reached on June 16 (all-time high). The market went live and became tradable on June 17 at 21:29. At that point the proposal already existed and was visible in the system as a concrete claim, it simply was not tradable yet, because it was still in the upvote phase. Throughout the entire tradable window from go-live onward, the threshold was never reached again.

What matters is when the event happens relative to the market's lifecycle. There are three cases:

1. Event happens before the proposal exists (before the upvote phase). This is past history and does not count. The market resolves normally based on the live window only. A concrete example is this earlier market:

https://app.neostake.de/market/3138352e-067b-4295-a843-15aa5afa6499

There, the value had already been reached at some point in the past, but not at any time after go-live. It was not voided, because the threshold was hit before the proposal even existed. Only the period from go-live onward counted, and so it resolved to “No”. This is exactly how it has always worked on Neostake.

2. Event happens during the upvote phase. The market is voided and all stakes are refunded. The upvote phase is a special window: the market already exists as a visible proposal, so by the time it goes live its outcome is already effectively decided or ambiguous. It would no longer be a genuine forecast.

3. Event happens after go-live. Normal resolution to “Yes” or “No”. For markets with a time horizon (“until …” / “by …”), the relevant window runs from go-live (the first tradable moment, as shown in the timeline) up to the closing date.

A note on wording: a proposal becomes a “market” only once it goes live and is tradable. Before that it is a proposal in upvote, regardless of how it is named. The logic counts, not the label.

Consequence for this market: The 2.75T USD threshold was exceeded on June 16, which fell within the upvote phase (case 2), and the market then stayed below it throughout the entire tradable window. Therefore “SPCX 2.75T by June 20?” will be voided and all stakes will be refunded in full.

Why is this not the same as the “No” example above? Because in that earlier market the threshold was hit before the proposal existed, which is irrelevant past, so only the live window counted. Here the threshold was hit while the proposal was already live in upvote, which means the outcome was no longer genuinely open at go-live. Same underlying principle, different timing, different result.

That is the entire point of a prediction platform: you forecast an uncertain, future outcome, not one that was already settled when the market opened. Resolving SPCX to “Yes” or “No” would not be fair, since the result was effectively decided before the first tradable moment.

If you have any questions, feel free to reach out anytime.

Best,
Your Neostake team